Last week was a rough one for the Denver Nuggets. While other teams competed in the NBA Cup, the Nuggets were forced to play teams that had already been eliminated. Unfortunately for Denver, both of its games against such opponents last week ended in defeat. They are now on another road journey in search of victory. 

Their opponent will be the Atlanta Hawks, who are also on a losing streak. Atlanta has lost three of their past four games and five of their last six. Despite experimenting with different core combinations around Trae Young, the Hawks have remained a middle-of-the-pack squad. Last season, they added DeJounte Murray to his backcourt.

This year, they traded forward John Collins to make room for exciting rookie player De’Andre Hunter. Despite the changes, Atlanta is now 9-12 and appears to be on track for a play-in tournament at best.

The Three Factors

Keep an eye out for the starters’ vigor.

The Nuggets’ starters looked flat last week, and when Nikola Jokic wasn’t hitting shots, it appeared that many of his teammates were at a loss for what to do. Tonight, I’m expecting a more aggressive performance from Aaron Gordon, who has a favorable matchup with Hunter. AG has been struggling a lot since his heel injury, and it hasn’t gone unnoticed. 

Gordon was eventually benched in Denver’s game against the Houston Rockets on Friday in favor of Peyton Watson down the stretch. Whether it’s Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Michael Porter Jr., or even Jamal Miurray (who is still recovering from an ankle sprain), the Nuggets need some help from their starters who aren’t named Nikola.

Remember: Jokic doesn’t get a lot of points on Capela.

Nikola has a career high of 27 points against Clint Capela, but since Clint arrived in Atlanta, Jokic has never above 24 points against him. Joker battled with the athletic large early in his career but eventually figured him out, as he does with everyone. Nonetheless, Capela and the Hawks defense in general push Jokic to be a facilitator rather than a scorer. 

Given his previous shooting troubles, it will be fascinating to see if Atlanta adjusts things up tonight and forces Joker to beat them by putting the ball in the hoop.

The thing to bet: KCP over 1.5 threes and 9.5 points (+130)

DeJounte Murray is the far superior defender of the Hawks’ two guards, and we’re likely to witness some Murray on Murray aggression with him regularly matching up with Jamal. 

That means Trae Young will be assigned to Kentavious, which may lead to a productive night of scoring for KCP. You can take the over on 1.5 threes for even money, but adding the over for KCP points raises it to +130.