Is Nikola Jokic’s poor shooting stretch cause for real concern? Jamal Murray says no: “Not every night’s gonna go your way”

Nikola Jokic of the Denver Nuggets reacts while playing the Houston Rockets in the fourth quarter at Ball Arena on December 08, 2023 in Denver. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)

Nikola Jokic’s visit to Los Angeles this week should be considered a stat line unicorn if he’s already a unicorn on any NBA innovation timeline. Possibly a goblin.

“I’ve never seen that before, and I don’t think I’ll ever see it again,” Michael Porter Jr. told Nuggets coach Michael Malone after Jokic shot 9-for-32 in a Clippers loss.

It was the two-time MVP’s poorest shooting game in volume and efficiency (28.1%). Two nights later, he shot 9-for-26 in another loss at home, starting 1-for-10. Jokic’s tolerance to terrible games has been his thing for years. A “bad game” for Jokic frequently results in a semi-efficient 20-point double-double. He improves teammates. Still affects winning. His 114th triple-double came in Los Angeles.

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That was a poor game. The biggest difference between winning and losing was Denver’s best player shooting 9-for-32. As Porter remarked, Jokic probably never misses so many shots again, but it did highlight a recent pattern.

Jokic’s efficacy can change over a season, and recently he’s gone from near-unstoppable scorer to deаd-eye distributor. Point in case: His 10 assists Wednesday despite attempting so many shots.

The contradiction reflects Jokic’s rising responsibility. In the weeks without Jamal Murray, the Nuggets relied on him even more to run their offense. Once Murray (hamstring, then ankle) returns, the question will be whether Jokic can reduce his touches, which are still high. He should score and pass efficiently. Despite another MVP-caliber start, the stars haven’t aligned yet.

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Jokic’s ejection Nov. 20 in Detroit is statistically the turning point in 2023-24. It was roughly one month. Denver’s 14th game. All of them featured Jokic, who played restricted minutes against the Pistons for obvious reasons. First-half ejections often affect per-game data, thus a per-36 minutes average is better.

Shoot volume first. Jokic attempted 15.45 2-point shots per 36 minutes in 14 games, when he was scoring more than normal. He was making 66.2% of those shots. As automatic as NBA interior finishers.

Jokic fired 20.81 perimeter shots per 36 minutes in his following eight games after the ejection and made 51.2% of his 2-point tries. Five of those eight were on the road, where the Nuggets are prone to lapses in оffensive flow. In games where the Nuggets were consistently behind, Jokic may have felt more pressure to score. A paucity of foul calls has also frustrated him. His opponents physically guarded him. Whatever the case, shooting more frequently has not paid off.

Then again, he has also averaged 11 assists per 36 minutes in this eight-game stretch, a bump from 9.5 per 36 in the first 14 games. His turnovers per 36 minutes have declined from 3.6 in the first 14 games to 2.3 the last eight. When an empty Nuggets possession ends with Jokic right now, it’s because he’s missing a shot, not coughing it up with an over-ambitious pass … even though there have actually been more opportunities for him to cough it up.

Jokic passed the ball on 18.2% of his paint touches his first 14 games; he passed on 23.9% of his paint touches in the next seven, entering Friday night’s game vs. Houston. His pass rate on post-ups also jumped from 28.4% to 46.9% between those stretches, coinciding with a drop in post-up shooting percentage (55% to 42%). For turnovers to decrease despite a notable rise in passing situations is a testament to Jokic’s pedigree as one of the all-time great play-making centers. He and Malone have acknowledged before that turnovers are an inevitable side-effect of his creativity and the type of basketball the Nuggets play. Yet twice in three games last week, Jokic registered a 30-point triple-double without committing a single turnover (ending a 56-game streak in which he had at least one turnover). No other NBA player in the last 40 years has accomplished that twice in their career.

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In other words, Jokic has arguably reached a new career apex as a distributor in recent weeks, even while his 2-point shooting plummeted.

Murray came to Jokic’s defense Friday with an impassioned response to a question about the center’s poor shooting nights.

“I don’t shoot well every game,” Murray said. “Jok don’t shoot well every game. Mike don’t shoot well every game. Sometimes we don’t play defense. It can’t be just on: ‘He missed a couple floaters. Why are we down?’ No, it’s not about that. I hate when people keep saying that. Like, so what? He had a bad game. Or a bad shooting night. Whatever the Һell you want to call it. He had a triple-double the other night, and you’re saying he had a bad game. I don’t know what player has a bad game after a triple-double.”

How can shooting volume and passing volume both leap so much simultaneously? That gets to the crux of this most recent chapter in Jokic’s season.

The NBA tracked individual touches in 12 of the Nuggets’ first 14 games (excluding Golden State and Chicago wins). Jokic had 107.5 touches per 36 minutes. He averaged 118.2 touches per 36 in the next seven games before the Rockets matchup.

Crowned heads are weighty. Malone stated that he faces many demands each night. He’s never shied away from scoring, rebounding, defending, play-making, and leading. Just one thing I appreciate about Nikola. I’ve have to find ways to help Nikola rest and reduce his load, but he’s tough and won’t want that. He won’t care to hear it.”

Murray’s return should help Jokic score again by spreading out opposition opponents’ priorities. The current 18-for-58 streak with Murray in the lineup may be a reminder that even Jokic needs to find his shooting rhythm.